Monday, January 12, 2009

eBay Q4 Earnings Call Announced!

The eBay Q4 earnings call will be held on January 21st, 2009 at 2:00 PM PST. You will be able to get the first blush earnings info from the web, CNBC and Fox Business but the conference call will have all the detail.

You can listen in by linking here on the 21st

This is possibly the most important earnings call in the history of eBay and certainly John Donahoe's most important call. Q4's numbers will tell the story of how the recent changes have worked and if they do not meet the top end of expectations the Street will not be happy.  

Here's my 15% on the numbers: 

I believe that eBay was able to meet the top end of their guidance for the 4th Quarter, but that all other marketplace metrics (users, traffic, GMV, etc) will be down Y/Y. In their guidance for the 4th quarter they really lowered the bar of expectations, so meeting or slightly beating their guidance should not be celebrated with a party. They will still be flat to down Y/Y

Look for a non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 as opposed to $0.45 in 2007 and revenue for the quarter at $2.16 billion as opposed to $2.18 billion .  The buzz in the marketplace today is nothing like it was in early Oct. when eBay came out before the earnings call and lowered expectations. I believe they were able to fix the search problems of early Oct in time to save the quarter but they will still be flat or down Y/Y. 

This news, taken on its own, should give the share price a bump; that is until Amazon announces their numbers later in the month. 

my 15%


permacrisis said...

Non- GAAP. In a post-bailout world, why is that even allowed?

ms.pat said...

Randy - maybe nobody cares anymore?

Randy Smythe said...

Pat, I think investors still care but most sellers have moved on both emotionally and physically.

eBay is just another marketplace and if their numbers continue to fall then new management will come in, eventually. It may be too late by that time though.

nadine said...

To me the real question is not what Donahoe is going to say about Q4 earnings (for every possible set of numbers, we can predict that), but how The Street is going to receive it. Is their any faith in the grand turnaround story left? or not?

Randy Smythe said...


I don't think many analysts believe the turnaround story anymore. Most have downgraded to hold.

ms.pat said...

These analysts are amazingly stupid in their own way. They have their formulas and crunch their numbers and many of them still think ebay is a good buy. Many of them have absolutely NO idea what changes Ebay went thru in the past year. I've seen that over and over again in the financials. Its almost a crime the way they turn on unknowing small time investors to ebay stock. These people should at least know the whole story on that company before they invest.