Wednesday, April 09, 2008

According to ComScore eBay is Losing Visitors Share

In a note to investors this morning, Jeetil Patel of Deutsche Bank, listed some key takeaways from yesterday’s conference call with comScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni.

"... we hosted a conference call yesterday with Gian Fulgoni, Chairman of comScore, which underscored that a meaningful slowdown is underway in the e-commerce market. Takeaways from the call include:
  • Is March growth hitting a wall?: E-Commerce growth rates (excl. travel) have slowed from 18%-23% Y/Y in 2007 to *13% in Jan. & Feb., largely mirroring off-line retail. While Mr. Fulgoni did not provide March figures, we think that March e-commerce sales could land in the single-digit growth range, particularly based on our conversations with cos. regarding March.
  • Mixed results among categories: comScore indicated that several categories grew faster than overall e-commerce growth (incl. video games, tickets, furniture & electronics). Meanwhile, media, sports, clothing, jewelry & toys saw slower growth. The slowest spending occurred in the sub-$50K HH segment (+2%), with the >$100K segment growing by 26% and $50- $100K segment growing 11%.
  • Visitor Share Losses at eBay: Amazon appears to be gaining visitor share, growing from 16.5% in '07 to 21.5% in '08, while eBay is shrinking from 55% to 48%, of combined visitors. Amazon also appears to attract visitors with higher HH incomes over eBay (i.e. less price sensitive).
  • Comparison Shopping Pressuring Price? Consumers are now armed with more information and choice with the emergence of comparison shopping engines (CSE). With CSEs gaining more traffic from online buyers, they may be placing pressure on ASPs, due to greater pricing transparency. We think the variable of ASPs could become a more important factor during tough times.
These numbers seem to contradict the numbers in yesterday's report conducted by Forrester Research; "'s annual study of online retailing conducted by Forrester Research for 125 retailers predicts that online retail will rise 17 percent this year to $204 billion"

I guess we will see which report is correct when Online Retailer earnings for Q1 are reported in the coming weeks.

The visitor gap between eBay and Amazon is narrowing, so it will be interesting to see if the many changes being made at eBay can turn this trend around.

Just my 12%


Anonymous said...

Man don't you get tired of endlessly pumping amazon despite Apple eating its lunch. Some people have way too much time.

Randy Smythe said...

I like Amazon!

Its been berry, berry good to me. Amazon allows me to spend 8 - 10 hours a week on my business and the rest of the time I can blog.

Yeah, I do have a lot of time on my hands.

Steve L. said...

Judging from the interest in Selling on 'the River', you are right on the money Randy. Like it or not, there is a growing interest in selling on Amazon. And my sales are up too.

Randy Smythe said...

Steve, I think once sellers start to get the hang of selling on Amazon, they will feel like they are on vacation compared to the work just to eek out an existence on eBay.