Friday, October 19, 2007

Riddle Me This eBay! Part Two

My previous post generated a great discussion. In addition to the posts from readers of the blog I also received emails and IM's about eBay's 3rd Quarter report and my Riddle Me This eBay post.

After looking at this further, I do need to clarify some things. My chief focus is on eBay's US Marketplace business and I always view things from the perspective of the seller. Currently 51% of GMV comes from eBay International and that business as a whole seems pretty healthy but the problems facing the US marketplace, if not corrected, will make their way into the International Marketplace as well, as we've already seen in Germany. So, in my mind if they fix the problems in the Marketplace business in the US, the company as a whole will once again thrive.

According to Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel US GMV for Q3 was 6.7bn and essentially flat from the previous quarter and grew a modest 10% Y/Y (7% w/o Stubhub) these numbers in Q3 of 07, included a full quarter of eBay Express, which was officially launched in Sept of 06'. This quarter also included a 30 day seller promotion that increased listings in Core by roughly 2 million a day which should have moved the GMV needle higher and with the value of the dollar at historic lows increased International sales on the .com site could account for a large portion of that 7% increase.

So what do I suggest? I've been told that I am quick to post about the problems with eBay but rarely, if ever, post any solutions. I will be changing all of that come Monday. I’m am currently working on a post on how eBay can re-invigorate the US marketplace business; consider it my own “Peanut Butter Manifesto” for eBay. Sure, I am just a blogger who shut his eBay business down when I saw the writing on the wall but I’ve been observing eBay since 1999 and the solution is pretty obvious to me.

The fact that Amazon continues to grow at the rate of ecommerce and ecommerce as a whole, though slowing, is still growing at a better than a 20% clip should make it very obvious that their is room for eBay to grow much more than they are. So check out the blog on Monday for my “Shop Victoriously Manifesto” or maybe I should call it my "Windorphin Manifesto" that sounds a little cooler.


Anonymous said...

"I am just a blogger who shut his eBay business down when I saw the writing on the wall"

Isn't this just a bit of revisionist history, Randy? The way I've heard your story told -- from your perspective, in fact (see interviews) -- your departure was less of a choice and more of a collapse (buySAFE can vouch for this).

Randy Smythe said...

No Annonymous, it was a choice that I made because there was little point to continuing. I wasn't going to restructure the business for a second time. But you are correct, once I made the decision to shutdown the merry-go-round it did get a little messy.

But, thanks for your comments.

ONLYEBAY said...

Very much looking forward to reading your post on Monday. Have a great weekend.