Tuesday, February 20, 2007

What will Web 3.0 Look Like!

Web 1.0 began in 1995 and brought us Internet giants like Amazon, Yahoo, eBay, and later Google --it also brought us the "Bubble"-- The key drivers of Web 1.0 were search and eCommerce. Of course it wasn't called Web 1.0 until after the term Web 2.0 was coined in 2004 by Tim O' Reilly. According to Wikipedia "Web 2.0, a phrase coined by O'Reilly Media in 2004,[1] refers to a perceived or proposed second generation of Web-based services—such as social networking sites, wikis, communication tools, and folksonomies—that emphasize online collaboration and sharing among users."

The term's meaning and origination are under debate but the fact that it became part of the Internet Lexicon is not. Many peg the beginning of Web 2.0 with the launch of MySpace in 2003 but I would contend that the bridge from Web 1.0 to Web 2.0 was Google's Adwords program which was launched in 2000 and became the defacto standard for paid search, though GoTo.com developed the idea in 1998, Google was the driving force behind the monetization of search.

So, when will Web 3.0 begin and what will it look like? This is what I enjoy about blogging I can speculate and pontificate and if I'm right I become part of history, like Mr O'Reilly, if I'm wrong nobody will remember. I believe we are at the crossroads of the transition to Web 3.0 which will be dominated by digital entertainment, micro payments, and a maximization of "The Long Tail". When web historians look back at the beginning of Web 3.0 I believe they will identify Microsoft's Micro payment system as the Bridge to Web 3.0 (that is if they can actually implement it.) Micro payments will facilitate monetizing those Web 2.0 applications that we love so much and open the doors to completely new business models, expanding our use of digital entertainment and allowing companies to maximize the "Long Tail". What will Web 3.0 look like? Sramana Mitra has this to say:

"Personalization has remained limited to some unsatisfactory efforts by the MyYahoo team, their primary disadvantage being the lack of a starting Context. More recently, Netvibes has raised a lot of buzz, but also lacks the same organizing principle: Context.

In Web 3.0, I predict, we are going to start seeing roll-ups. We will see a trunk that emerges from the Context, be it film (Netflix), music (iTunes), cooking / food, working women, single parents, … and assembles the Web 3.0 formula that addresses the whole set of needs of a consumer in that Context.

-I am a petite woman, dark skinned, dark haired, brown eyed. I have a distinct personal style, and only certain designers resonate with it (Context).
-I want my personal
SAKS Fifth Avenue which carries clothes by those designers, in my size (Commerce).
-I want my personal
Vogue, which covers articles about that Style, those Designers, and other emerging ones like them (Content).
-I want to exchange notes with others of my size-shape-style-psychographic and discover what else looks good. I also want the recommendation system tell me what they’re buying (Community).

-There’s also some basic principles of what looks good based on skin tone, body shape, hair color, eye color … I want the search engine to be able to filter and match based on an algorithm that builds in this knowledge base (Personalization, Vertical Search).
Now, imagine the same for a short, fat man, who doesn’t really have a sense of what to wear. And he doesn’t have a wife or a girl-friend. Before Web 3.0, he could go to the personal shopper at Nordstrom.

With Web 3.0, the internet will be his Personal Shopper."

I do believe personalization will be a major element of Web 3.0, as well as digital entertainment, and vertical search but the driving force behind the transition to Web 3.0 will be Micro payments and I can see three companies jockeying for postion there. (Microsoft, Google and eBay's PayPal).

1 comment:

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