Sunday, October 19, 2008

Amazon Earnings WebCast Weds. Oct. 22nd

Amazon is getting ready to announce their 3rd quarter, 2008 Earnings this coming Weds. and many online retailers, analysts, investors, bloggers and eBay executives are going to be very interested in what they have to say.

What everybody wants to know, regarding this Amazon earnings call is, will Amazon cancel Christmas just like eBay did?

We know the economy is doing poorly and you would think it would treat Amazon and eBay alike, after all they are conducting business in the same economy. eBay has already cancelled Christmas because of the economy, it just makes sense that Amazon will have to as well - doesn't it?

If Amazon meets or beats, Wall Street's estimates for Q3 and doesn't revise their Q4 guidance down in response to the macro-economic headwinds, eBay execs better run for the hills, because there will be nowhere to hide. 

I have said all along that eBay's results are mainly due to poor execution, not the economy. eBay should be excelling in this economy, but appears to be lagging behind. If Amazon, doesn't disappoint on Weds. then the "fat lady" has sung.

My suggestion, for those merchants who sell on both eBay and Amazon: Listen in on this conference call or read My Blog Utopia on Weds and if the word is that Amazon won't be cancelling Christmas this year, then make plans to have the lion's share of your inventory on their site as soon as possible.

Just my 15%

3 comments:

Tony P. said...

I'm not making excuses, but Amazon and ebay aren't quite the same and Amazon may show some stall or downtrend.

Everyone knows the differences between the two, but think about this: ebay had an increase in new listings of 5%, yet the total sold amount, GMV, was down by 9% (compared to last quarter).

More STUFF came, but sold for LESS. For ebay, their revenue depends upon not only how much comes to the site, but also by how LITTLE the seller will sell it for.

Amazon doesn't quite have that same luxury - they can't put anything more on site than what they have and if they cut their price, they lose actual revenue.

Because Amazon sells actual product, their revenue relates to their GMV (ebay's doesn't, not directly). The 3P sellers do add to Amazon's coffer, so that is a plus.

Therefore, if Amazon's numbers outshine ebay's numbers, then Amazon REALLY delivered.

Likewise, you can't compare revenue growth either; Amazon's is relative to sales; ebay just squeezes the sellers a little more.

Ebay's GMV may have been down by 9%, but they posted a loss of Marketplace revenue of only 4%. The sellers lost out, but ebay lost less than one-half as much.

I predict that with paypal-only and higher FVFs in this next quarter, ebay's (seller's) GMV could be down as much as 12%, and ebay will show a positive revenue. Bloodsuckers.

Anonymous said...

I sell on both Amazon and Ebay. I have noticed that my sales on Ebay have been picking up lately.

Randy Smythe said...

Anonymous,

It depends on the day of the week. I've talked to sellers who are off 50% from where they were in August.

I am glad you are seeing an increase in sales, at least somebody is.