Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Predictions Please!

Let's predict the outcome of todays eBay earnings call. If 28 different analysts can look at the same data and come up with completely different estimates why shouldn't we make our own wild guesses; one of us is bound to be right.

I'll go first:
I think ebay will hit their numbers for the 3rd quarter but reduce their guidance for 2007 which should send the stock price down.

If you want to follow the conference call but can't listen in Melly Alazraki will be blogging real time during the call. I'll update the link when it becomes available.


bonni said...

Yeah, I think they'll make their marks this time, mostly through creative fudging of the numbers (and the analysts will be dumb enough to just go, "Oh, okay, you did good. We believe you! Everyone, buy eBay stock!").

First quarter of next year will look worse, but they'll be starting their planned stock buyback then, which will make the stock prices at least stable, if not bring them up.

Second quarter of next year though... well, there's going to be some reckoning by then, because the big holiday season will be over and the migration of sellers which has already begun will REALLY be felt (many sellers are staying until after Christmas while making plans and setting up their own sites and so forth).

I don't know what they'll pull out of their... uh, hats... to fudge the numbers then, but I'm guessing it'll be the sponsored advertising that they'll be able to spin so it looks good and the dumb analysts will say, "Oh, okay, money, that's good, we believe you!"

Eventually, though, the house of cards is going to collapse...

Randy Smythe said...

Well, they beat their numbers for Q3 by a penny but their guidance for 2007 is 2 cents a share under Analysts consensus estimates.